the track record
Every edge, proven on the real fills.
Every claim on this page is a pair of prices at one second of a match, and BOTH sides are proven on a public chain. The market side: the actual Polygon transactions that traded at the entry and at your take-profit price. The fair side: for each of those seconds, a Solana validate_odds transaction that the TxODDS oracle program only confirms when the odds record hashes into the Merkle root TxODDS committed on-chain for that day. So "the market printed 0.19 while TxLINE's fair said 0.24" is not our recording; it is two explorer links you can open. 176 fair anchors are live on Solana mainnet so far.
16
matches measured
$99,848,128
traded in-play, measured vs fair
$9,530,771
cheap side traded ≥5pp below fair
$7,376,150
cheap side traded ≥10pp below fair
signal calibration · the delay, graded across 16 matches
81%
book reached TxLINE
+1277%
ROI · Kelly-sized, take-profit at fair
90
signals · every call, unfiltered
$75,074,982
size available at fair (exit)
the full record: every call, Kelly-sized (capped at 30%), nothing curated
+1277%
Kelly bets, take profit when the line reaches fair
-63%
the SAME Kelly bets, held to the final result instead
Every divergence the detector fires is published and scored, either side, any size, any minute. One display rule keeps the compound honest: when the detector re-fires inside the same minute on the same event (a second fill ticking in at a worse price), only the lowest entry is counted here; the duplicates stay in the published data and you can switch the rule above. Sizing is the only risk control — each bet is Kelly on its gap, f = gap / (1 − price), capped at 30% of the free balance so no single call can ruin the account (full Kelly, uncapped, once staked 81% on one call and gave back 76% of the bankroll). The firm result is the reach rate: the market travels to TxLINE's fair on roughly 81% of calls, and exiting there beats holding the same bets to the final result by a wide margin (the coin-flip outcome gives the convergence profit back). The compounded ROI is positive but concentrated in a few high-volume matches — it is the raw product of every call, shown as-is, and it moves as each new match settles. Pilot sample; recomputed from the real fills.
Portugal v Croatia
fifwc-prt-hrv-2026-07-02-hrv11
signals
100%
reached TxLINE
+184%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$7,217,081
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67' | Portugal | 0.780 | 0.850 | 7.0pp | $1,727,861 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 72' | Portugal | 0.660 | 0.845 | 18.5pp | $1,791,001 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 75' | Portugal | 0.340 | 0.540 | 20.0pp | $2,591,469 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 80' | Croatia | 0.362 | 0.492 | 12.9pp | $25,562 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 84' | Croatia | 0.233 | 0.479 | 24.7pp | $7,537 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 94' | Portugal | 0.833 | 0.883 | 5.0pp | $197,412 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 96' | Portugal | 0.652 | 0.882 | 22.9pp | $197,881 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 97' | Portugal | 0.823 | 0.874 | 5.1pp | $212,321 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 98' | Portugal | 0.805 | 0.869 | 6.4pp | $227,514 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 99' | Portugal | 0.593 | 0.866 | 27.4pp | $232,636 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 113' | Croatia | 0.028 | 0.091 | 6.3pp | $5,887 | ✓ | 4 fills ▾ |
Australia v Egypt
fifwc-aus-egy-2026-07-03-egy7
signals
100%
reached TxLINE
+158%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$4,763,281
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' | Australia | 0.410 | 0.630 | 22.0pp | $1,416,848 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 20' | Australia | 0.200 | 0.354 | 15.4pp | $1,475,782 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 76' | Egypt | 0.340 | 0.677 | 33.7pp | $19,907 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 84' | Australia | 0.680 | 0.739 | 5.9pp | $943,537 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 103' | Australia | 0.790 | 0.843 | 5.3pp | $405,700 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 104' | Australia | 0.780 | 0.843 | 6.3pp | $405,700 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 114' | Australia | 0.400 | 0.950 | 54.9pp | $95,807 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
Norway v England
fifwc-nor-eng-2026-07-11-eng8
signals
100%
reached TxLINE
+111%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$6,574,275
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35' | England | 0.350 | 0.511 | 16.2pp | $102,472 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 36' | Norway | 0.680 | 0.732 | 5.2pp | $1,073,259 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 46' | Norway | 0.470 | 0.741 | 27.1pp | $850,620 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 48' | Norway | 0.370 | 0.518 | 14.8pp | $3,007,940 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 75' | England | 0.225 | 0.410 | 18.5pp | $1,739 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 76' | Norway | 0.710 | 0.818 | 10.8pp | $469,871 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 107' | Norway | 0.603 | 0.790 | 18.8pp | $534,187 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 108' | Norway | 0.652 | 0.792 | 14.0pp | $534,187 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
Mexico v England
fifwc-mex-eng-2026-07-05-eng10
signals
100%
reached TxLINE
+88%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$19,963,827
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14' | England | 0.300 | 0.374 | 7.4pp | $8,734,023 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 35' | Mexico | 0.500 | 0.672 | 17.2pp | $2,484 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 37' | Mexico | 0.250 | 0.367 | 11.7pp | $4,548,924 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 41' | England | 0.750 | 0.866 | 11.6pp | $731,954 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 73' | Mexico | 0.330 | 0.386 | 5.6pp | $2,065,836 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 74' | England | 0.590 | 0.644 | 5.4pp | $2,769,952 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 76' | Mexico | 0.250 | 0.547 | 29.7pp | $182,395 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 79' | Mexico | 0.480 | 0.547 | 6.7pp | $2,552 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 87' | England | 0.750 | 0.829 | 7.9pp | $842,923 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 91' | Mexico | 0.410 | 0.464 | 5.4pp | $82,784 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
Argentina v Switzerland
fifwc-arg-che-2026-07-11-che6
signals
83%
reached TxLINE
+24%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$3,765,388
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' | Switzerland | 0.090 | 0.172 | 8.2pp | $2,983 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 30' | Argentina | 0.848 | 0.947 | 9.9pp | $1,476,362 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 70' | Argentina | 0.850 | 0.958 | 10.8pp | $741,318 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 87' | Argentina | 0.870 | 0.965 | 9.5pp | $314,604 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 90' | Argentina | 0.810 | 0.860 | 5.0pp | $1,230,121 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 92' | Switzerland | 0.072 | 0.142 | 6.9pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
France v Morocco
fifwc-fra-mar-2026-07-09-mar5
signals
80%
reached TxLINE
+15%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$1,332,669
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24' | Morocco | 0.070 | 0.122 | 5.2pp | $129,666 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 26' | Morocco | 0.070 | 0.122 | 5.3pp | $129,575 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 27' | Morocco | 0.070 | 0.122 | 5.3pp | $129,575 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 27' | France | 0.745 | 0.877 | 13.3pp | $943,853 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 82' | Morocco | 0.040 | 0.106 | 6.6pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
Spain v Belgium
fifwc-esp-bel-2026-07-10-bel3
signals
100%
reached TxLINE
+14%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$82,933
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29' | Belgium | 0.107 | 0.158 | 5.1pp | $28,291 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 38' | Spain | 0.777 | 0.954 | 17.6pp | $31,245 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 40' | Spain | 0.850 | 0.954 | 10.4pp | $23,397 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
Portugal v Spain
fifwc-prt-esp-2026-07-06-esp7
signals
86%
reached TxLINE
+11%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$8,287,851
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' | Portugal | 0.440 | 0.524 | 8.4pp | $2,651,967 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 33' | Portugal | 0.480 | 0.531 | 5.1pp | $2,042,878 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 40' | Spain | 0.390 | 0.448 | 5.8pp | $2,142,016 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 98' | Portugal | 0.620 | 0.682 | 6.2pp | $531,994 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 101' | Portugal | 0.650 | 0.711 | 6.1pp | $448,737 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 112' | Portugal | 0.300 | 0.867 | 56.7pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
| 118' | Spain | 0.400 | 0.951 | 55.1pp | $470,259 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
Switzerland v Colombia
fifwc-che-col-2026-07-07-col2
signals
100%
reached TxLINE
+5%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$1,177,925
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80' | Switzerland | 0.650 | 0.726 | 7.6pp | $839,094 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 102' | Switzerland | 0.760 | 0.822 | 6.2pp | $338,831 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
Spain v Austria
fifwc-esp-aut-2026-07-02-aut3
signals
33%
reached TxLINE
-1%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$584,128
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' | Spain | 0.792 | 0.886 | 9.4pp | $584,128 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 28' | Austria | 0.033 | 0.099 | 6.7pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
| 35' | Austria | 0.030 | 0.094 | 6.4pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
Argentina v Egypt
fifwc-arg-egy-2026-07-07-egy8
signals
75%
reached TxLINE
-4%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$9,460,047
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14' | Argentina | 0.830 | 0.911 | 8.1pp | $709,565 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 18' | Egypt | 0.170 | 0.236 | 6.6pp | $4,553,878 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 80' | Argentina | 0.490 | 0.648 | 15.8pp | $776,290 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 82' | Egypt | 0.430 | 0.704 | 27.4pp | $1,894,115 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 82' | Argentina | 0.550 | 0.646 | 9.6pp | $760,302 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 88' | Argentina | 0.280 | 0.582 | 30.2pp | $765,897 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 100' | Egypt | 0.740 | 0.851 | 11.1pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
| 105' | Egypt | 0.370 | 0.572 | 20.2pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
Switzerland v Algeria
fifwc-che-alg-2026-07-02-alg2
signals
0%
reached TxLINE
-12%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$0
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' | Algeria | 0.175 | 0.272 | 9.7pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
| 66' | Algeria | 0.028 | 0.079 | 5.2pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
Canada v Morocco
fifwc-can-mar-2026-07-04-mar4
signals
50%
reached TxLINE
-22%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$1,300,769
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72' | Canada | 0.380 | 0.669 | 28.9pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
| 99' | Morocco | 0.490 | 0.771 | 28.1pp | $651,592 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 102' | Morocco | 0.730 | 0.781 | 5.1pp | $649,177 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 104' | Canada | 0.140 | 0.218 | 7.8pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
Paraguay v France
fifwc-par-fra-2026-07-04-fra5
signals
60%
reached TxLINE
-24%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$3,146,316
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38' | Paraguay | 0.190 | 0.244 | 5.4pp | $2,187,385 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 75' | Paraguay | 0.270 | 0.327 | 5.7pp | $797,423 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 85' | Paraguay | 0.360 | 0.439 | 7.9pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
| 86' | Paraguay | 0.300 | 0.440 | 14.0pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
| 118' | France | 0.910 | 0.964 | 5.4pp | $161,508 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
USA v Belgium
fifwc-usa-bel-2026-07-06-bel4
signals
50%
reached TxLINE
-29%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$2,884,872
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' | USA | 0.510 | 0.645 | 13.5pp | $15,149 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 30' | Belgium | 0.380 | 0.608 | 22.8pp | $2,869,723 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 32' | USA | 0.390 | 0.679 | 28.9pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
| 80' | USA | 0.110 | 0.344 | 23.4pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
Brazil v Norway
fifwc-bra-nor-2026-07-05-nor5
signals
60%
reached TxLINE
-29%
ROI · Kelly, take-profit
$4,533,620
size available
every call · click to open the on-chain fills
| min | cheap side | entry price | TxLINE fair | gap | size avail. | reached fair | on-chain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' | Brazil | 0.640 | 0.794 | 15.4pp | $1,551,971 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 10' | Norway | 0.160 | 0.216 | 5.6pp | $2,980,915 | ✓ | 6 fills ▾ |
| 101' | Brazil | 0.500 | 0.870 | 37.0pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
| 109' | Brazil | 0.210 | 0.291 | 8.1pp | $734 | ✓ | 4 fills ▾ |
| 111' | Brazil | 0.050 | 0.249 | 19.9pp | $0 | ✗ | entry ▾ |
Updated 2026-07-13 22:30 UTC · new matches settle into the ledger automatically as the tournament plays out.
provenance
The fair line is TxLINE's Solana-anchored World Cup feed; the book is a prediction market's fills read straight from Polygon. Both legs are public, so you can recompute every number on this page yourself. The fair anchors work like this: TxODDS commits a Merkle root of every day's odds updates to Solana mainnet. For each fill second in the ledger we fetch the odds record that was in force from TxLINE's public API, take its Merkle proof, and land a validate_odds transaction against the oracle program (9ExbZj…cKaA). A tampered price cannot produce a confirming signature, so each Solscan link is the feed operator's own on-chain attestation of the fair at that second, not our word for it.